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Bulletin 269: Coronavirus: hidden cases; why we must shut everything down NOW

March 11, 2020

Dear friends and colleagues –

You are probably keeping up with COVID19 news. You should.

Today the generally excellent Moon of Alabama (MoA) blog summarized an important discussion of the COVID19 pandemic (as the World Health Organization finally today declared it is).

That discussion was published today by Tomas Pueyo at Medium.com: "Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now."

As Pueyo makes clear, even one day's delay can markedly increase total mortality (by say, 40%) in the early, exponentially-growing phase of an epidemic such as this.

We urge you to read the MoA and Pueyo discussions RIGHT NOW. 

The conclusion?

NOW is the time to shut down all non-essential social contacts and gatherings, business meetings, travel, and increase social distancing as much as possible.

In a somewhat milder form this is also now official policy in our state, as it is in others. With the first three confirmed cases in the state the Governor of New Mexico declared COVID19 a public health emergency this morning.

There are likely many hidden cases in the state which will come to light in the next few days. These will meanwhile be the sources of further infections.

With full containment now impossible (as official pandemic status implies), the goal is now to slow the spread of the virus to prevent health systems and hospitals from being overwhelmed, which would increase the overall death rate greatly, and to allow time for more effective treatments and possibly vaccines to be developed and disseminated.

For most, the mortality risk from COVID19 is low. The risk to others we incur if we do not curb our social interactions may not be immediately apparent to us. This is likely to be especially true for adolescents and young adults.

We are concerned about the loss of "elder wisdom," especially in cultures such as Indian Pueblos where much traditional knowledge and wisdom is passed down from old to young personally and in rituals led by elders.

We have canceled our own strategy meeting this evening here in Albuquerque. We will have that meeting electronically, when we get a few ducks in a row.

We have been urging a one year's postponement of the NPT Review Conference, for the same reasons others have recommended plus additional ones. (See "Relentless Spread of Coronavirus Obliges Postponing the 2020 NPT Review to 2021"; "Coronavirus Threatens to Wreck Nuclear Review Conference".)

This is a world-historical event that will upend many assumptions, habits, and priorities. Our societies, economies, and polities will not be returning to what many people think of as "normal" -- ever. The strategic implications of this for us here in New Mexico were to be our topic this evening. As we are saying locally, this is a teachable moment.

There is much happening in the world of nuclear weapons, especially in the NNSA's brutal quest for a new factory to produce plutonium warhead cores ("pits"). We will take that up in the next Bulletin.

Greg Mello, for the Study Group