Bulletin 292: Statement on the Ukraine conflict and war with Russia

March 1, 2022

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Previously: Bulletin 291: Don't enable a crash program for new ICBM warheads!, Jan 26, 2022

Dear friends and colleagues --

Over the six days since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began, what was (at least superficially) a regional conflict has become a global hybrid war with ever-greater stakes, casualties, and risks for the world.

Perhaps the greatest danger lies in the difference of motives between parties, which is also the fundamental cause of this war: Russia seeks security, while the U.S. and its NATO allies have been using Ukraine to deny that security -- to "break Russia," in Kissinger's 2015 phrase. The US does not want peace, unless it be the peace of a conquered Russia. That is why there is no obvious end to the escalations and counter-escalations. The U.S. and NATO see opportunity in the war they have been trying so hard to provoke.

We are not sure why more folks are not drawing the obvious line from the Wolfowitz doctrine of 1992 through the Maidan coup in 2014 that came from the same neoconservative circles, and on to the appointment and subsequent actions of Victoria Nuland and the State Department today. Truth is, that 1992 doctrine, elaborated in the RAND study on how to overextend and break Russia, is the controlling view in US foreign policy vis-a-vis Russia, with all the variations and complications that subsequent years have brought.

We have many pages of references, group letters, drafts, and prior work on this crisis. A draft of this Bulletin ran to more than 10 pages. We've been communicating with a few dozen of our most active members and advisors intensively. Since 2014, we have made it our business to understand this conflict and have held multiple public meetings and teach-ins discussing it. I (Greg) have discussed the Ukraine conflict in the offices of the National Security Council -- and I was appalled by the lack of knowledge and understanding I found there.

We will communicate a lot more, and faster, because this war is already affecting everything we do as an organization, and it will affect all of us in serious ways. It is a global war.

Many organizations have put out statements about this conflict. In our view, most (not all) of these statements are superficial, and/or omit the causes of the invasion as Russia understands them, or frankly are too lock-step with U.S. and NATO propaganda to win our support.

Someone suggested we write a brief statement about this war, to get the ball rolling so to speak. So we did, omitting most references for now. It's a draft, directed primarily toward dialogue other peace-oriented organizations in the West and in the U.S. especially. If you have suggestions let us know. We want you to know where we are coming from.

Later today or tomorrow we will offer what we believe to be some of the very best of the recent articles and sources information.

Greg and Trish, for the Study Group

Los Alamos Study Group Statement on the Ukraine Conflict

3/1/22

Preliminaries

1. It is not our job in peace organizations in our respective countries to tell Russia, or Ukraine, or any other country in which we do not live, what to do. Imperatives like, “Russia should do this, or Russia should do that” should have no place in our demands. We need not justify or condemn Russia, especially when the basic facts of the situation are not known by many, and a hurricane of propaganda is underway.
   
   
2. Right now, condemning Russia only serves to fan the flames of jingoism in the West. Russia has a different view of the situation, which involves what it considers existential dangers to Russia. The sincerity of that view is evident in the grave risks Russia is taking in this invasion, which again we need neither justify nor condemn. Russia’s view has to be respected, whether or not we agree with it. Failure to respect Russia’s position, and to provide a humane and reasonable provision for Russia’s security needs by the U.S., Ukraine, and NATO over the course of many years – decades even – is the main if not the only material cause of the present conflict. Telling Russia what to do is the problem, not the solution. We in NATO countries and in the West more broadly, and in peace-oriented groups, need to confine our imperatives and judgments to what we ourselves can do, in and with our own countries and in relation to NATO.
   
   
3. Security is largely indivisible. Security for one state requires security for others. This is a core principle of European security which Russia rightly insists upon. We should honor that. Russian security is important. The fundamental cause of the current conflict is the desire of the U.S. to weaken or “break”[1] Russia.
   
   
4. Human rights, including the right of political self-determination, are pillars of Western values and institutions. The government of Ukraine has denied human rights and political self-determination to the peoples of the Donbass, and has killed roughly 13,000 of them over 8 years, wounded thousands more, and destroyed the peace of that region over this long period. Since the 2014 coup d’etat in Ukraine sponsored by the U.S., other Western states, and private funders, Ukraine has not been a fully sovereign state, in its relations to Russia and in other ways. The U.S. and some allied states have sought to use Ukraine to undermine Russian security. The Ukrainian government has overtly genocidal policies toward Russian minorities. For these reasons, it is not clear that the Ukraine government is fully legitimate.
   
   
5. Nazi and Neonazi formations and ideologies are repugnant and present a clear danger to human rights and human life everywhere, as well as to the foundations of society and its political institutions.
   
   
6. Peace and nuclear disarmament organizations should be particularly alarmed by NGO support for U.S. efforts to demonize and destabilize Russia.

What we want

1.   We want a negotiated peace at the earliest possible time.

Comment: It’s not good to complicate this, but a negotiated peace is unlikely to be instantaneous, or a cease-fire possible, while simultaneously preparing for future conflict by the introduction of new weapons and while a hybrid war continues via financial sanctions, political actions, informational warfare, etc. Few of us are military strategists and none of us are national leaders. Decisions as to how to protect vulnerable populations now and later, how to end military operations and solve intractable conflicts with the least loss of life, are complex matters requiring expertise, experience, dialogue, and negotiation.

While we in peace organizations have our own opinions, the pejorative label “armchair general” can often apply. We need a certain humility, especially as our views and understanding of the facts on the ground, and especially the history of the conflict, are heavily influenced by propaganda.

2. We want an end to further escalation and broadening of the conflict, which threatens the well-being and security of the whole world. None of our countries should be introducing or transporting arms or conducting military activities or providing training or support of any kind in Ukraine. Peace groups should oppose all such escalation. "Helping Ukraine" with military "aid" is just a way of getting more people killed in the service of U.S. imperial aims.
3. Weapons should not be provided to civilian individuals, gangs, criminals, children, and “stay-behind,” guerilla, or Volkssturm groups.[2]  Such strategies only inflict needless suffering and damage prospects for peace now and in the long run. There is no honor or legitimacy in them.
   
   
4. All economic sanctions – which hurt citizens more than elites and are indiscriminate and deadly – should be lifted. Economic sanctions are weapons of mass destruction, with global effects.
   
   
5. We want measured, just, de jure denazification of the Ukrainian government and laws. The rise, in Ukraine or anywhere, of neo-Nazi organizations, military formations, and the official endorsement and support of neo-Nazi ideologies by government as we see in Ukraine (and by the West in Ukraine), is of global concern. Denazification is also a paramount demand of Russia and should be respected and considered for that reason alone, if our desire for a negotiated peace is sincere. Neo-Nazi groups and their actions and ideologies have played a large role in triggering this conflict.
   
   
6. The independence of the Donbass region within pre-conflict administrative boundaries should be accepted by all our organizations and countries. Details can obviously be negotiated. Peace groups and our countries should condemn all political and military threats and assaults against that region, which has suffered a great deal at the hands of the Ukraine government since 2014, with no end in sight.
   
   
7. The fully-democratic decision of Crimea to rejoin Russia should be fully accepted by all our organizations and countries.
   
   
8. Peace groups, and our respective countries, should support a neutral, demilitarized (i.e. without heavy weapons or force projection capability) Ukraine, which is similar if not identical to the outcome sought by Russia.

Comment: This is what many of us want for our own countries more or less. If Western countries demanded this as an end state, peace could be quickly achieved.

9. In places where the military outcome is in little or no doubt, our groups and countries should support surrender to the Russian military. We see no evidence at all that Russian forces aim to harm civilian populations and economic infrastructure – quite the contrary, in fact. Useless resistance will kill many civilians. Where cities are surrounded and cut off from military assistance, they should surrender and negotiated joint peacekeeping forces be set up.
   
   
10. Civilian areas should not be used as military staging or artillery bases. This is illegal, in fact. Right now it is the Ukrainian Armed Forces which are doing that.
    
    
11. Ukraine should never be allowed to join NATO. That was a capital demand of Russia and one that we should all support.
    
    
12. Our respective countries should leave NATO. NATO is the largest military alliance in the world, consuming more resources than all other militaries combined, and has been involved in numerous wars of aggression, in violation of the UN Charter and Nuremberg principles. NATO is also a nuclear weapons alliance.
    
    
13. In fact, we should advocate for NATO should be disbanded.
    
    
14. The U.S. and the five states that host U.S. nuclear weapons should, jointly or individually, decide to end nuclear hosting arrangements, as well as end the training of non-U.S. pilots in nuclear weapons use and the prospective use of non-US dual-capable aircraft for nuclear missions.