June 17, 2023

Bulletin 329: Russia rules out nuclear disarmament negotiations; second week of Ukrainian offenses fail; what will US and NATO do? Build 60 projects in LANL's Pajarito Corridor?

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Previously: Bulletin 328: Toward a better pit production policy, part 2 (of interest to some); Zoom discussion on pits tomorrow 6/15/23 5 pm MDT, Jun 14, 2023

Dear friends and colleagues --

First, thanks to all who took part in our discussion on pit production this past Thursday, arranged with just a few days notice. We dispensed with briefing slides, for better or (as I now think) worse given the material we had made available prior to the meeting (Part 1, Part 2). We did not require prior registration and as a result had three "zoombombing" interruptions, one that was hard to stop. Finding and booting out the culprit unfortunately closed the door to three or four attendees also. Next time: everyone must register. 

Next time, we hope to offer a panel discussion addressing some of the wider issues of war and peace, and their relation to nuclear disarmament today. Stay tuned.

Ukraine update: Jun 17, 2023: Russia: nuclear disarmament negotiations? Nyet.

The important St. Petersburg Economic Forum concluded today, involving some 14,000 participants from 131 countries. The Forum coincided a second week of catastrophically-failing Ukrainian offenses in Ukraine. Putin and other Russian leaders gave unusually expansive remarks about the Ukraine war, and foreign policy in general. We see not just more communication, but also a change in tone. 

Some of this is captured on our Ukraine pageupdates today, which we repeat here for your convenience. We urge you to read all these articles if you can.

Of central importance to our friends and colleagues, there is this short must-read article: "Putin: Russia has More Nuclear Weapons than all NATO Countries," SouthFront, Jun 17, 2023

    "Answering a question on his stance on using tactical, low-yield nuclear weapons as a deterrent, Putin stressed that his attitude about the idea of using such weapons was “negative” and pointed to Moscow’s nuclear doctrine."

"Nuclear weapons are created to ensure our security in its most broad sense and the very existence of the Russian state. But we, firstly, do not have such a need, and secondly, the very fact of discussing this topic already lowers the threshold for the use of [nuclear] weaponry,” he said, according to RT.

    "The Russian president added that Moscow will not engage in any nuclear disarmament talks with the West, given that reducing the country’s arsenal would put it at a disadvantage."

"We possess more weaponry of such sort than the NATO countries. They know that and are always trying to persuade us to start negotiations on reduction. Nuts to them, you know, as our people say,” the president said. (emphasis added)

    "With regard to the deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus, Putin said that the entire batch will be deployed by the end of the year."

"As you know, we held talks with our union state, with President [of Belarus Alexander] Lukashenko on deploying part of these tactical weapons to Belarusian territory. It has happened – the first nuclear warheads have been delivered to Belarusian territory. This is the first batch. We will complete this work by the end of this year,” he said.

    "Putin said that that measure will serve as a deterrent “so that everyone who is thinking about hitting us strategically will not forget about this fact."

The fact of this disinterest is not new; what is new is Putin making it explicit.

So we keep repeating: if you want nuclear disarmament, work for peace in Ukraine and a modus vivendi with Russia and China more broadly. Talking about "nuclear disarmament" absent the moral courage to oppose this U.S.-provoked war is pretty damn chickenshit.

Ending the war is going to mean, as M.K. Bhadrakumar observes in the article below, "negotiating with Russia on its terms, or to expect a military solution, which might mean the obliteration of Ukraine as a nation and the eviction of NATO." Russia "will not allow Ukraine to remain a chronic wound infected by the microbial species from the transatlantic universe. Cauterisation of the wound is necessary, albeit with potential risks."

LANL Director Thom Mason recently inferred that the collapse of diplomatic relations with Russia, and nascent U.S. conflict with China, were reasons for LANL's expansion: “It’s an incredibly busy time for us. As you’ve probably read in the paper, we’re in a very different geopolitical environment than we’ve been in for quite some time and that’s translating into the increased work scope we’re managing.”

This "increased work scope" includes "ramp up of 60 large and small construction projects in the Pajarito Corridor, most or all of which support creation of a plutonium "pit" factory complex there, the purpose of which is to make enough new warheads to enable deployment of multiple warheads on the new Sentinel ICBM, as we discussed on Thursday.

Unfortunately, this crash program is supported by prominent arms control leaders.

Here are other articles from today's selection, carrying important news about the Ukraine war that can help inform your peace activism. 

Featured  • On The Failure Of The Ukrainian Counterattack, Moon of Alabama, Jun 16, 2023
    "There is little the Biden administration can do to change the grim picture. Congress will likely prevent it from openly using the U.S. military in Ukraine. The European NATO allies have now seen what the Russian army can do to its enemies. They will not be eager to see the same done to their own troops.
    "That leaves negotiations as the only way out.
    "The question for Russia is when and with whom. Talks with only Ukraine, a mere U.S. proxy with no real say, would be insufficient. It is the U.S. government that must agree to a new security architecture in Europe. The Russian conditions for peace will be harsh and it will still take a lot of time, and many dead Ukrainians, until the U.S. agrees to them."

Featured • Scott Ritter: Ukrainian Counteroffensive’s Second Week Ends in Failure, Sputnik International,Jun 17, 2023
    "In Vilnius, NATO will be confronted with the reality of its impotency as a military alliance when it comes to countering Russia in Ukraine. Any military analyst of any competence will know that, as things currently stand, Ukraine simply cannot prevail over Russia. NATO illusions of a “frozen conflict” that seem to drive their insane desire to arm Ukraine to infinity and beyond, moreover, are driven by fundamentally flawed assessments regarding Russian economic competence and capacity, Russian military proficiency, and the will of the Russian people to sustain this conflict.
    "Here is the root cause of NATO’s strategic failure in Ukraine—a complete lack of understanding about the reality of Russia today. Russia will be able to out-produce NATO from a standpoint of military technology until which time NATO nations fully transition into a wartime economy, something NATO nations neither have the political will nor economic means to accomplish....
    "This short-sighted posture will result in the inevitable military collapse of Ukraine, probably sometime between late summer/early fall of this year. When this happens, NATO will be left scrambling to construct some sort of face-saving mechanism to salvage its weakened geopolitical position vis-à-vis Russia. What that will look like is unknown at this time. But one thing is for certain—because NATO refuses to consider an off-ramp from the Ukrainian conflict today, there will be no future for Ukraine tomorrow. NATO political pride will be the downfall and destruction of the Ukrainian nation, its military, and its people."

Featured • Russia won’t let Ukraine be bleeding wound, M.K. Bhadrakumar, Indian Punchline, Jun 17, 2023
    "With the Ukrainian offensive under way for a fortnight, all eyes are on the battlefields, and, crucially, Russia’s options ahead. In a little over three weeks from now, the NATO will be holding a summit in Vilnius and the West has choices to make too. We are arriving at a fork in the road.
    "The NATO expected the Ukrainian forces to punch through key Russian fortifications by now. In reality, they are struggling to get anywhere near the sprawling layered fortifications and in that desperate attempt, are taking massive losses, entrapped in minefields and taken to pieces by Russian artillery and missiles and the dreaded multi-role attack helicopters known as Alligator."

 • Zelensky ‘a disgrace to the Jewish people’ – Putin, RT, Jun 16, 2023
    "They say that Zelensky is not a Jew, he is a disgrace to the Jewish people. I’m not joking, this is not irony," Putin said. He pointed to the fact that the current Ukrainian authorities openly celebrate Nazi figures, most notably Stepan Bandera, a Ukrainian nationalist who collaborated with the Third Reich during World War II.
    "The Russian leader recalled that out of six million Jews killed during the Holocaust, 1.5 million were from Ukraine, with Ukrainian nationalists heavily involved in mass executions.
    "However, nobody wants to hear about Bandera being an anti-Semite, because Zelensky himself is a Jew, Putin said. “But with his actions, he provides cover for this scum,” the Russian leader said.
    "On Tuesday, Putin blasted Kiev’s decision to remove statues of Soviet leader Vladimir Lenin – who he says basically founded Ukraine – from public squares and replace him with Bandera, whom he referred to as “a scoundrel and a fascist.” At the time, he said he was “surprised” by the move, pointing to Zelensky's Jewish roots."

 • Putin predicts fate of F-16 in Ukraine, RT, Jun 16, 2023
    "In case Kiev gets some F-16s and stations them at bases outside Ukraine, "we will need to look at how and where we can hit those assets used in combat operations against us," Putin said at SPIEF. "This is a serious danger of further dragging NATO into this armed conflict."

 • Putin: Kiev Has Lost 186 Tanks, 418 Armored Vehicles, Losses Mounting, Ilya Tsukanov, Sputnik International, Jun 16, 2023
    " Putin also once again took the opportunity to delve into the root causes of the present crisis, saying "the war in Ukraine, in southeastern Ukraine, was started by the Kiev regime with the support of their Western sponsors in 2014. But everyone in the West tries not to speak about this. I am forced to remind them that aviation, tanks, artillery were used used against the Donbass [back then]. What is this if not a war?"

 • Poland covets western Ukraine – Putin, RT, Jun 16, 2023
    "Last year, the director of Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service, Sergey Naryshkin, suggested that Polish President Andrzej Duda had already instructed the “relevant services” to come up with a justifiable basis to claim those territories.
    "He also stated that he had received intelligence suggesting that Warsaw is considering submitting restitution demands to Kiev for the 1943 Volhynia massacres, which saw over 100,000 Poles killed by the Nazi-allied Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists led by Stepan Bandera. Kiev currently considers the Nazi collaborator a national hero.
    "Warsaw, however, has repeatedly denied claims that it plans to take over Ukrainian territory, dismissing it as a Russian disinformation operation. Nevertheless, Duda has expressed hope that a time will come when both Poland and Ukraine will live “together on this land, building and rebuilding our common happiness and common strength that will allow us to resist every danger.”     "In early March of 2022, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky stated that “effectively, we no longer have a border with Poland, with a friendly Poland,” referring to how welcoming Warsaw had been to Ukrainian refugees."

 • Russia to give military-technical response if F-16 jets appear over Ukraine — Lavrov, TASS, Jun 16, 2023
    "Now there is talk about F-16 aircraft, which, indeed, can be equipped to carry nuclear weapons."

 • ‘The world will be different’ when the Ukraine conflict ends – Lavrov to RT, RT, Jun 16, 2023
    "We won’t be prepared to let security guarantees be based on more pledges and promises or even documents the West may offer us,” he said. “We must guarantee our national security on our own.”
    "We fully understand that we can only rely on ourselves and build relations only with countries open to an equal and mutually beneficial partnership,” Lavrov continued. “This is not what we see in the West these days."

 • Anglo-Saxons control collective West – Moscow, RT, Jun 16, 2023
    "According to Lavrov, the “Anglo-Saxons and their allies” are currently trying to pressure countries around the world to side with them against Russia, including the Arab world, using methods he can only describe as “rude.”
    "You see, when they talk about these ‘rules’ on which the international order must be based, what they really mean is their diktat,” Lavrov told RT. “Colonial instincts – live at the expense of others. Nothing else.”
    "Lavrov took particular exception to Western proclamations that their support for Kiev is “defending democracy” and that Ukraine is fighting for “Western values” in the conflict with Russia.
    "First of all, if they really see it that way, I cannot but be convinced that they are holding on to Nazi views. Because saying that Western values are being protected in Ukraine is the same as saying that Nazism is your mode of existence,” the diplomat told RT. As for democracy, he added, “they only speak about democracy when they teach others how to live,” but not when it comes to respecting the sovereign equality of other states, per the UN Charter."

 • Some countries’ peace proposals on Ukraine contain ‘ideas that could work’ — Zakharova, TASS, Jun 16, 2023
    "All of it was blocked by [Ukrainian President Vladimir] Zelensky, because this concept was laid out by Washington. Washington pursues the concept of ‘kill as many Russians as possible.’ This concept was voiced by prominent representatives of the US political establishment including [ex-US President] George Bush Jr and Senator [Lindsey] Graham," Zakharova said.
    "The Russian Foreign Ministry’s spokeswoman added that that Washington adhered to the concept of utter domination in the world and strategic defeat of Russia.
    "They used to speak about it and documented it as dismemberment. But now, they are somehow trying to publicly rewind it back - I mean previously voiced statements and concepts of US diplomats - as they now say that this is not dismemberment of Russia, but some kind of punishment for Russia," she stated."

 • Pepe Escobar: Russia’s New Roadmap for Multipolar World, Sputnik International, Jun 16, 2023
    "Alexander Dugin engaged in a stunning presentation, explaining paths towards development in parallel to how Russians should understand identity.
    "That led to an inevitable critique of ethnocentrism: “The West chooses itself as the only subject. It holds a system of values deemed to be universal – that everybody else must follow.” That’s “the West as the whole of humankind”, coupled with a drive to “de-subjectify the rest. The global subjectivity of the West is built in”. Dugin described it as “a virus”, developed “over centuries.”
    "Integration in the Global West, according to Dugin, “leaves Russia without a future.” Rather, Russia should declare the West to be “one force among several. Not an existential threat.” Russia can “proclaim itself as a sovereign state. Exercise a “mental de-colonization of society.” That’s how a “civilization-state that defines its own goals” should act.
    "Showing a diagram in three steps, “between red and lilac”, Dugin illustrated how Russia can perform the transition from “understanding itself in the Western world” towards “sovereign development."

 • Putin and What Really Matters in the Chessboard, Pepe Escobar, Strategic Culture Foundation, Jun 15, 2023

 • De-Escalation Can Start with Ending All Nuclear Weapons “Sharing”, John LaForge, LAProgessive, Jun 15, 2023
    This proposal was brought up just prior to our pit meeting yesterday by Alice Slater (thank you!), with the added point that this would be a good way to start a disarmament process.

 • Senior Russian Official: Putin Has Green Light To Sever Undersea Commo Cables, ZeroHedge, Jun 16, 2023

Thank you for your attention.

Greg Mello and Trish Williams-Mello, Los Alamos Study Group