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80 pits by 2030 won’t happen, NNSA boss reaffirms. But ‘acceleration’ is in the works.
The leader of the National Nuclear Security Administration this week reasserted that a legal requirement to produce dozens of nuclear weapon cores by 2030 is not achievable, but suggested tactics designed to close the gap are being implemented. “We have said that we cannot meet the 80 pits per year goal by 2030,” Administrator Jill Hruby said Monday, during the first day of the Nuclear Deterrence Summit in Arlington, “and we will work closely with the Department of Defense to develop stockpile strategies that reflect this reality.” Hruby further said the National Nuclear Security Administration – the weapons-and-nonproliferation arm of the Department of Energy – has “developed acceleration strategies” to ensure the 80-pit quota is achieved “as close to 2030 as possible,” according to a copy of her remarks. Michael Thompson, a National Nuclear Security Administration executive, over the summer similarly said the agency was “pulling out all the stops, if you will, and coming up with” all viable options. The fact that the NNSA will not meet its pit production mark by 2030 is not shocking; critics and industry watchers predicted it for years, some painting a graver picture than others. Moreover, nominee Hruby in 2021 told lawmakers that timelines for a Savannah River Site pit factory were slipping, likely imperiling the broader endeavor, and President Joe Biden’s fiscal year 2022 budget request cemented it. And even before that, in 2019, the Institute for Defense Analyses warned of pitfalls and high hurdles. But both Hruby and Secretary of Energy Jennifer Granholm have publicly endorsed the current approach: crafting the key nuclear weapon components in New Mexico and South Carolina, an arrangement officials argue protects against a paralyzing single point of failure. “New manufacturing capacity and innovation is needed as we replace more and more components,” Hruby said Monday. “In short, we know that we have to deliver and collectively feel a sense of urgency to do so.” The Savannah River Site pit hub – the Savannah River Plutonium Processing Facility – is being built utilizing what remains of the Mixed Oxide Fuel Fabrication Facility, an unfinished nuclear fuel plant axed by the Trump administration. The National Nuclear Security Administration in June 2021 predicted SRPPF could cost up to $11.1 billion, far more than initially expected. And it could be realized, the agency said, as late as 2035. More precise figures are expected in fiscal year 2024. |
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