The head of arms control for the State Department told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee Tuesday that continued modernization, including 150 B-21s, will prod China to engage in arms control talks with the United States.

“I think the president’s broad view, and he’s been extremely forward leaning on this, is he wants to see fewer nuclear weapons in the world, and that’s a good place to start,” Thomas Dinanno, undersecretary of state for arms control and international security, said at Tuesday’s hearing. Dinanno was responding to a question from Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas). Cornyn asked what it would take to get China involved in arms control talks again, especially given the end of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START). 

“The problem with New START” is that it “only covered part of the Russian stockpile and none of the Chinese stockpile,” Dinanno continued. 

Signed in 2010 by then U.S. and Russian Presidents Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev, New START, which expired Feb. 5, limited each country to 1,550 deployed nuclear warheads, 700 deployed missiles and bombers, and 800 non-deployed launchers and bombers. 

Defense analysts believe the expiration of New START might lead to a new nuclear arms race, especially as Russia backed out of on-site treaty verification inspections in 2023 amid the Joe Biden administration’s support of Ukraine in its campaign to turn back the Russian invasion. Democratic lawmakers agree with this sentiment. But in testimony to the Senate Armed Services Committee in February, however, former national security officials said New START was a “bad deal” and urged President Donald Trump not to unofficially extend the treaty for another year, absent including all weapons and a verification mechanism to identify, and give consequences for, noncompliance.

“Simply extending the New START Treaty for one year does not constrain Russia to the same way that it constrains us,” former U.S. Strategic Command commander Adm. Charles Richard said at that hearing. “It prevents us from answering the challenge that China has added to this, and it increases the uncertainty because it doesn’t have the verification mechanisms built in that were so successful in the past.”

Dinanno said there were two points to consider: “Arms control and non proliferation on one side of the coin,” and on the other side the Pentagon’s modernization effort “which is ongoing that will bring new capabilities across the spectrum.” 

“I think 150 B-21s will get the Chineses’ attention,” Dinanno said. “I think hundreds of LRSOs [long range standoff missiles] will get their attention.” 

Dinanno alluded to U.S. Strategic Command commander Adm. Richard Correll’s testimony last week in front of the House Armed Services Committee, where he said discussions are ongoing on increasing production of the Northrop Grumman B-21 Raider stealth bomber. The bomber is designed to be capable of carrying both conventional and nuclear weapons.

“I don’t think anyone wants an arms race. I know the president doesn’t. He’s been very clear. He wants to see fewer nuclear weapons,” Dinanno said. “But if the Chinese continue this breakout again, if they’re approaching parity again, this isn’t a 2040 problem. It’s very much becoming a 2030 problem that we will compete vigorously across the spectrum of modernizing our nuclear forces.”