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Our most recent Bulletin (371b): Some background and talking points in support of no further illegal military action in Venezuela and beyond (Jan 8, 2026)

Dear friends and colleagues -- 

First (to provide some partial closure from the action we asked from you last time), as probably you know S.J.Res. 98 ("To direct the removal of United States Armed Forces from hostilities within or against Venezuela that have not been authorized by Congress") failed to pass the Senate on Jan. 14. The 50-50 tie was broken by VP Vance. More on all this at the end of this Bulletin, after the coin picture. 

Second, in case you haven't received this notice already via our more New Mexico oriented Activist Leaders listserve, we'll be having some nuclear movie nights at our offices (2901 Summit Place NE, Albuquerque) on alternate Wednesday evenings, with discussions. These will alternate with discussions of current events in the war and peace sphere, and our own actions. There will be exceptions for travel, etc., so if you want to know what is going on please subscribe to our New Mexico Activist Leaders listserve by sending a blank email here, if you do not already get those messages. 

This schedule begins TONIGHT at 6 pm, with "The Atomic Cafe," (not "The Day After" as previously mentioned.) There will be snacks. You must RSVP because our space is limited. I think there are still a half-dozen seats available as of this writing. 

Third, we have designed and ordered a limited number of commemorative glow-in-the-dark challenge coins, as you see below. They're a small, "solid" way to show your commitment to confronting the nuclear weapons complex and your solidarity and support for the Study Group's research, organizing, outreach, and lobbying. 

For those unfamiliar with New Mexico's nuclear geography, the "Journey of Death" on the coin (or if you prefer, "Dead Man's March") is the name of the place (Jornada del Muerto) where the Trinity test occurred. As we have often remarked, in the subsequent 80 years New Mexico has in many ways been unable to leave the Jornada del Muerto. 

They are also meant to be conversation-starters with civilian nuclear weapons workers, many of whom are accustomed to such coins. (In NNSA weapons production culture, challenge coins play a vaguely similar role to that of uniform patches in the military.) We decided we wanted a coin to denote peace and disarmament participation. Some of our frenemies may even want one. 

Thanks to the work and contributions of many people, the Study Group has had a lot of successes through the years. We hope to give some of these coins to those of you who have been heavily involved with us during those successes, but they do cost significant money. We therefore need to sell most of them. 

For now, we are offering these coins for $30 each, including shipping, or $25 if we can hand them to you at events or if you come to our office to get yours. If you want to order one, be sure and write Trish ASAP. If they start to sell out we will need to hike the price or just stop selling them altogether, so please do let Trish know if you want one. You can pay for them via PayPal at this link. 

We expect to issue other challenge coins in the future, themed for the campaigns ahead.

Fourth, Wednesdays starting at 1 pm are turning out to be "volunteer days" at the Study Group office. Call or write Trish for more information about the upcoming Wednesday. (February 4 will NOT be a volunteer day.) 

Fifth, as always we are quietly looking for volunteers -- local part-time, or visiting full-time (whom we may be able to frugally support). We will also consider potential internships, partially supported via stipend, In short, we are looking for a few good men and women. If you are curious, think about a working visit. Call or write Trish. 

More soonest then, and a wonderful new year to everybody, 

Greg Mello, for the Los Alamos Study Group

Some ad-hoc reflections on Trump's foreign policy

Trump's foreign policy statements -- which are a form of action -- increasingly outrageous.The catalog of threatened aggressions seems to grow every day -- Venezuela, Denmark (Greenland), Iran, Cuba, Columbia, Mexico, Canada, Nigeria. Then there is the outrageous Gaza "Board of Peace" scam. 

In the last year, Trump has bombed Iran, Iraq, Nigeria, Somalia, Syria, Yemen, and Venezuela -- 622 overseas bombings in all between Jan.20, 2025 when Trump took office, and Dec. 31, 2025, to which the Jan. 3 Venezuela bombings and invasion (and any others) must be added. 

Regarding Trump's planned conquest of Greenland, the estimable "b" at Moon of Alabama believes Trump Will Take Greenland ... And Then Go For More. The industrious blogger "Simplicius" emphasizes "The Psychological Stake in Greenland" (partial paywall), agreeing with Nadezhda Romanenko that "If he gets Greenland, Trump will go down in history as one of the great American presidents" -- even though his stated reasons are false and his high-risk methods illegal. Simplicius: 

One of the problems is that the larger that Trump’s failures grow, the more psychologically pressed he will be to pursue lofty ‘big-ticket’ geopolitical ‘slam-dunks’ in order to make up for his perceived losses. In Trump’s mind, he likely—correctly—assesses that a big victory can wipe away the stain of even the biggest loss. So, as his other initiatives fail, and his unpopularity grows, he may become increasingly unhinged to perform large-scale geopolitical “miracles” like being the man to take down Iran, acquire Venezuela, Greenland, and even Canada, etc., in order to simply overpower the loss of prestige from his dwindling presidential legacy. 

I do not consider the conquest of Greenland by the U.S. inevitable by any means. Europe has ways to fight back, and Trump is vulnerable as the midterms approach. Further, there is no indication that any of these actions would be even remotely be a "slam-dunk" -- or is even possible, except in Trump's mind. Venezuela, to pick one, is far from being "acquired." That's a "work in progress" with a very uncertain outcome. 

But the psychological factor does appear real enough. As Trump bluntly said, in his long interview with the NYT, acquiring Greenland is "[p]sychologically important for me." 

Yet there is another factor involved in all these initiatives, which is the U.S. public debt. The U.S. must sell debt all the time to keep going. If debt can't be sold the economy will crash. This creates a terrible dynamic, which is not psychological. Trump saying he needs Greenland for his own psychological reasons is both true, and a cover story. Saying he needs it for his own ego sounds and is terrible enough, but the underlying fiscal reality is much more terrible still and cannot be spoken out loud. Trump seeks to protect the dollar -- he must do so, as he sees it. He believes he needs assets that can in one way or another be bankable. He wants real estate and resources. And he needs to guard and enhance the reputation of the U.S. military. 

Pepe Escobar's "Empire Of Chaos, Plunder, & Strikes In Panic Of Being Evicted From Eurasia" captures the situation pretty well, IMO.

Regarding Iran, war there was recently narrowly averted as you will already know. Alastair Crooke's essay two days ago is hardly the last word on the subject ("Deciphering Trump’s ‘externalised internal thinking’ on Iran"). In any case Iran was able to put down the U.S.-Israeli attempted "color revolution," and Iran's military deterrent held, No quick "victory" was possible, and Trump did not "pull the trigger." 

War against Iran likely remains more a matter of when than if. For the U.S. and for Israel, it would be a big mistake. The bigger the war, the bigger the mistake. Nobody knows for sure how far and fast that fire would spread. 

It would be easy to blame all of this on Trump's personality. That perpetuates the problem. Trump's style is his own, but the perceived need to project power is a structural feature of empires in decline. 

Until Trump, or a future president, and the controlling factions in the national security state including both political parties, can muster a necessarily-ragged but real decision to welcome a multi-polar world, there will be war. Where there is war already, there will be wider war. 

What is to be done now? What can be done? 

As far as preventing or ending military actions go, resolutions under the War Powers Act like the recent S.J. Res. 98, are privileged, meaning among other things that they are fast-tracked for expedited consideration, cannot be filibustered and require only 51 votes to pass the Senate. With only a single majority required for passage in the House, this kind of measure would seem to offer some hope for restraining a rogue president from using military force. In practice, when has this ever happened in a timely, formal manner? 

Funding can be withheld, but this method is slow and typically involves must-pass funding bills. War Powers resolutions, if they can be passed (and there is as yet no sign of that) would be faster. 

There is the 25th Amendment (Senator Markey, Jan. 19; Larry Johnson, "The Time Has Come to Take the Car Keys from Donald Trump," Jan. 17). This is a pipe dream. 

There is impeachment. Conviction and removal from office requires 67 Senate votes, an impossible number. It is also slow. It would also be highly partisan. Neither the 25th Amendment nor impeachment touches the fundamental problem that Democrats are approximately just as war-loving as Republicans. 

Constraining the President's use of the military by an act of Congress is by far the easiest and fastest of these, if the political will is there. If there is no majority for doing so in both houses, there will not be a majority for any of these other measures. 

Helping to fostering the political will to peace in Congress, in both parties, is necessary. Pushback from allies and adequate deterrence from U.S. target countries will happen, and will help. For peace to emerge from its shell, pecking will have to happen from the inside and the outside. It remains absolutely essential to reach out to Republicans in Congress, as well as to Democrats. 

I would like to repeat the passage from Emmanuel Todd that concluded the last Bulletin: 

I can sketch out here a model of the dislocation of the West, despite the inconsistencies of the policies of Donald Trump, the defeated [?] American president. These inconsistencies do not result, I believe, from an unstable and undoubtedly perverse personality, but from an insoluble dilemma for the United States. On the one hand, their leaders, both in the Pentagon and the White House, know that the war is lost and that Ukraine will have to be abandoned. Common sense therefore leads them to want to get out of the war. But on the other hand, the same common sense makes them realise that the withdrawal from Ukraine will have dramatic consequences for the Empire that those from Vietnam, Iraq or Afghanistan did not have. This is indeed the first American strategic defeat on a global scale, in a context of massive deindustrialisation in the United States and difficult reindustrialisation....Imperial dynamics, or rather imperial inertia, continue to undermine the dream of a return to the productive nation state. (emphasis by b at Moon of Alabama)

gm