For immediate release February 3, 2023

Installation of "Base" Capability to Produce 30 Plutonium Warhead Cores ("Pits") at Los Alamos To Be Delayed 4 Years, to 2030

New date is 4 years past statutory deadline

Los Alamos Study Group questions viability, need for massive project; calls for termination

Contact: Greg Mello, 505-265-1200 office, 505-577-8563 cell

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Additional references available upon request; see also this page

Albuquerque, NM -- A January 19 memo from Deputy Secretary of Energy David Turk is evidence of a dramatic setback in Los Alamos National Laboratory's (LANL's) preparations to produce plutonium warhead cores ("pits").

As recently as May 2022, installation of the "base" capability to produce 30 pits per year at LANL was to be complete by September 2026 [1], the year LANL is required by law to begin production at that level. That "base" capability and capacity will now be fully ready only by August 2030, four years later than expected last year and four years after the statutory production deadline.

A separate project [2] aims at making pits reliably at that same 30 pit-per-year level. As of last May, that "reliable" capability was to be completed two years after the "base" capability, suggesting "reliable" production may be delayed until late 2032.

Preparations for pit production at LANL, the Savannah River Site (SRS), and other NNSA sites comprise the largest endeavor in the history of the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), expected to cost in excess of $20 billion (B) through fiscal year 2033 at LANL alone, $6.8 B of which has already been appropriated. [3] In 2017, NNSA estimated LANL's pit production start-up costs at $3 B (slide 2), a fraction of the cost estimated today.

By September 2021, LANL's schedule for reaching the 10 pit-per-year production level had already been delayed by 14-15 months, with a concomitant multi-billion-dollar program cost increase. In early 2022, NNSA officials began to speak openly about anticipated delays ("Nuclear Warhead Agency Admits Los Alamos Likely to Miss Interim Warhead Core Deadlines; Review of value, cost, of Los Alamos factory needed," Feb 12, 2022). At that time NNSA Deputy Administrator told Nuclear Security and Deterrence Monitor,

“The real goal we can’t lose sight of is 30 pits a year in 2026,” Charles Verdon, the NNSA’s deputy administrator for defense programs, said in response to questions from the Exchange Monitor Tuesday after his presentation to the Deterrence Summit. “Right now, all indications are we still remain on track.”

The Turk memo casts fresh, significant doubt on this statement.

ExchangeMonitor Publications was the first to write about this significant new delay (paywall; reposted here from the Nuclear Security and Deterrence Monitor, with permission). The Department of Energy (DOE) provided the Turk memo to us and others as a courtesy this morning. The Los Alamos Reporter also wrote about the memorandum this morning.

NNSA spokespersons no longer say LANL is "on track" to meet the 2026 30-pit-per-year deadline. In its January 12, 2023 review, the Government Accountability Office (GAO) used an estimated date of 2027 for LANL's first 30-pit-per-year production ("GAO: NNSA's Huge Program to Build New Warhead Cores ("Pits") Lacks Detailed Schedule, Budget, and Scope of Work," Jan 12, 2023).

NNSA currently maintains that the project in question is not necessary to produce 30 pits per year by some year "as close to 2026 as possible":

“The project will aim to deliver equipment to support 30 [pits-per-year] production as close to 2026 as possible, and LANL will be building war reserve (WR) pits using existing equipment as the project proceeds...We expect an increasing number of WR pits to be produced each subsequent year until the LAP4 30 Base equipment is installed, at which point the capability will be in place to produce 30 WR pits each year with moderate confidence. Exact production rates will depend on how quickly the processes mature and potential facility/equipment failures."

Yet the Turk memo says this project, now delayed four years, is necessary to provide even "moderate confidence" of 30 pit-per-year production.

Study Group director Greg Mello:

"NNSA told Congress that this $2 billion project 'establishes a capability and capacity to provide a minimum of 30 war reserve ppy to the stockpile.' Now this basic capability is delayed 4 years. A subsequent billion-dollar project, presumably also delayed, is designed to produce 30 pits per year reliably.

"This is a massive project delay, accompanied by some very slippery language as to what it really means.

"What is more, buried in the detailed project descriptions, a clandestine program to expand LANL's production to beyond the publicly-announced "30 pits per year" can be discerned.

"NNSA and LANL will struggle mightily -- with many setbacks, delays, failures, and accidents -- in their misguided attempt to reach 30 ppy in that cramped, aging facility. LANL will never reach 30 pits per year, or produce pits reliably. Especially, it cannot do so while meeting DOE safety regulations.

"The LANL pit production project is not only failing but is entirely unnecessary to maintain the current stockpile. It should be terminated immediately. There is no net "value-added" for pit production activities at LANL beyond technology demonstration and training. The only excuse for the crash program at LANL was its supposed ability to reach 30 pits per year by 2026. That rationale has now ended."

Notes

1. This is the "30 Base Equipment Installation (30B) Subproject (21-D-512-02)," described by NNSA as follows, on p. 227 of NNSA's FY2023 Congressional Budget Request (emphasis added):

Pit production enclosures and programmatic equipment procurement and installation to support pit production capacity of a base of 30 ppy. The scope encompasses designing, procuring, installing, testing, transitioning to operations (TTO), and hot startup of new gloveboxes and associated equipment in PF-4 and the Sigma facility. The 30B subproject establishes a capability and capacity to provide a minimum of 30 war reserve ppy to the stockpile. To support reduced project and program risk, long-lead procurement and fabrication of enclosures and process equipment was approved on December 21, 2021, and is expected to be complete in 2023. Advanced procurement of the long-lead equipment integrates with the anticipated approval of CD-2/3 in December of 2022, enabling installation to proceed immediately after the approval of the performance baseline. Installation of the long-lead procurement will proceed as the remainder of the 30B enclosures and equipment are fabricated. This tailored approach minimizes impacts to program operations and increase construction efficiencies. Additionally, temporary 80,000 sq ft warehouse space will be provided for the pre-staging of equipment for setup, testing, and assembly, prior to final installation.

2. This is the "30 Reliable Equipment Installation (30R) Subproject (21-D-512-03)." From p. 228, op. cit. (two degrees of emphasis added in one place):

Pit production enclosures and programmatic equipment procurement and installation to support pit production capacity of 30 ppy reliably. The scope encompasses  designing, procuring, installing, testing, transitioning to operations (TTO), and hot startup of new gloveboxes and associated equipment in PF-4 and the Sigma facility. The 30R subproject expands the capability and capacity to provide 30 war reserve pits per year to the stockpile at a 90% confidence using a single shift. To support reduced project and program risk, long-lead procurement and fabrication of enclosures and process equipment is planned for December 2022 and is expected to be complete in FY 2024. Advanced procurement of the long-lead equipment integrates with the anticipated approval of CD-2/3 in December of 2023, enabling installation to proceed immediately after the approval of the performance baseline. Installation of the long-lead procurement will proceed as the remainder of the 30R enclosures and equipment are fabricated. This tailored approach minimizes impacts to program operations and increase construction efficiencies.

3: Last May, based on NNSA budget projections, the Los Alamos Study Group estimated program start-up costs at $35.1 billion (B), from program inception in fiscal year 2019 (FY19) through then-postulated full production in FY2033. Some $19.4 B of this sum would be spent at LANL, $14.3 B at SRS, and $1.4 B at other sites. Costs have subsequently risen and start-up dates are pushed back. Further cost and schedule information will be available on or about March 9, when NNSA is expected to provide its FY24 budget request to Congress.

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