Albuquerque, NM -- Just before the holidays,  we compiled a table of how New Mexico ranks relative to other states ("Failing State: How New Mexico Ranks, Dec. 20, 2024). 

We updated that table this week with a couple of new rankings: "Riskiest Drivers in U.S" (Albuquerque, Allstate via KRQE); and "Worst Drivers in U.S." (New Mexico, Forbes).

What we found was eye-opening, even for us. New Mexico has poor, not to say disastrous, social outcomes relative to other states. While most of us know that "New Mexico is at the bottom of every list," seeing many of these "lists" together in one place better communicates, we hope, the failures of our public policies than seeing them piecemeal in occasional articles and on-line ratings. 

Obviously these metrics vary a great deal in objectivity and importance. The most important ones are however shockingly real, authoritative, and damning.

Our first objective was simply to help us see and absorb the reality of the situation, independent of ideas about causation. As many of us could testify, it was not always thus -- at least not to this degree and in this many ways. We do not discuss the many possible reasons for these outcomes here.

But second, it is clear that our nuclear labs and military bases have not brought economic development. They haven't, and as is now clear, they won't. Over the past decades, we have argued that the labs have not brought any kind of prosperity and never will (see for example Does Los Alamos National Lab Help or Hurt the New Mexico Economy? Working paper, July 2006). There is much more data available today than in 2006 showing that as LANL and Sandia have grown, New Mexico has not prospered. 

Over the years, it's been amazing to see so many otherwise smart people conflate spending money with actual economic development. The labs do that all the time, of course -- it's their primary argument, circular though it be.

(For reference, a graph of historical LANL spending in constant dollars can be found here, showing the enormous growth in spending that has occurred just during the Biden Administration. Overall U.S. nuclear warhead spending can be seen here; this chart does not include any other aspect of nuclear weapon spending. This increase in spending is not associated with improved social economic outcomes in New Mexico, as these rankings show.)

We have often quoted former Pentagon and Colorado College economist Dr. William Weida: "Those who think LANL creates economic development are people for whom 60 [now 80] years of data are not enough."

Third, we asked ourselves, if Los Alamos is bringing economic development to New Mexico, why is the neighboring County of Rio Arriba performing so poorly? The 2,398 employees of LANL residing in Rio Arriba County pulled in $291 million in LANL salaries in fiscal year 2023. This does not include the substantial sums paid to subcontractors (Ibid., p. 4). Since there are only 9,462 employees total in the Rio Arriba County workforce, LANL employees comprise 31% of all employees in Rio Arriba County -- again not counting LANL subcontractors, of which there are hundreds.

Given the enormous economic influence of LANL on Rio Arriba's economy, then, the County's relative rankings within New Mexico in key social indicators can tell us, more than any other observable measure, how much "economic development" LANL really brings. That relative ranking within New Mexico in effect "cancels out" the effect of statewide variables and policies.

So what do we see in Rio Arriba County? Despite over $200 million in LANL jobs, plus more in subcontracting, we see that Rio Arriba ranks in the worse half of New Mexico counties in poverty overall, and has the 4th highest ranking in poverty of minors and elderly. It has the highest rate of accidental death of any New Mexico county, and the second-highest rate of alcohol-related deaths and drug overdose deaths. Rio Arriba's per capita income, food security, and child food security rankings are in the bottom half of New Mexico counties. Rio Arriba County does poorly, despite all its LANL jobs.

Santa Fe County cannot be used for this analysis because Santa Fe County has many other large employers, some as large or larger than LANL's presence in the County (i.e. state and local government, tourism, health care), as well as a considerable amount of private investment income and income transfer from other states. LANL's 3,975 employees in Santa Fe County comprise just 6.5% of the 61,095 jobs in the County in 2023. Given this, the "signal" of LANL in Santa Fe's overall economic and social development indices is relative faint. The same is true for Sandoval and Bernalillo counties, while Taos County has too few LANL employees -- only 306 -- to significantly affect its economic picture or social outcomes.

This neither proves nor disproves that proximity to LANL, with all its high-paying jobs, has caused this poor economic and social performance. What it does prove, in broad-brush but irrefutable fashion, is that LANL is not any kind of "economic development" engine. Rio Arriba's problems continue despite 80 years of LANL spending -- to the tune of approximately $150 billion, in total, in today's dollars.

Although it's very far from the whole picture, we agree with Bill Weida: "Northern New Mexico will never develop until people realize that 'The Bomb' was a mistake."

Fourth, we believe that LANL employees who come from afar should know what they are getting into. We hope to help communicate these realities to them.

Last year, National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) Los Alamos Field Office (LAFO) manager Ted Wyka pegged attrition at LANL at 900 individuals for 2024 ("NNSA’s Ted Wyka gives semi-annual report," Boomtown, Stephanie Nakhleh, Sept. 27, 2024). This is roughly double the long-term recent average but less than the 1,147 who left in 2022 (FY2024 NNSA Stockpile Stewardship and Management Plan, Nov. 2023, pp. F-24, F-25). Most of those who leave the lab do so within the first 5 years of service (p. F-23). This is a difficult situation for any employer.

Many of those who leave provide personal explanations on social media (e.g. Reddit) and on job-search sites like Glassdoor. Many are not complementary about LANL.

This topic came up at the panel discussion on pit production we hosted at the National Press Club in November with the NNSA Administrator and the Government Accountability Office (press release, video). Issues arising at work for LANL, and difficulties even getting to work at LANL, arise within the wider reality that New Mexico has poor, not to say disastrous, social outcomes that directly or indirectly affect LANL employees, just like everyone else.

***ENDS***