For immediate release June 21, 2023

Journalists to tour LANL plutonium facility, "ground zero" for proposed interim pit manufacturing

Contact: Greg Mello, 505-265-1200 office, 505-577-8563 cell

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Albuquerque -- Tomorrow, selected journalists from New Mexico and around the country will be given a partial tour of the main plutonium facility at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), building "PF-4."

The tour will be led by representatives of the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), the agency within the Department of Energy (DOE) responsible for designing and producing U.S. nuclear warheads, and Triad National Security, the contractor which manages and operates LANL for NNSA.

NNSA and Triad are in the process of converting a large part of PF-4, along with current and planned future supporting facilities near PF-4 in the so-called "Pajarito Corridor" as well as elsewhere at LANL, into an interim manufacturing facility for plutonium warhead cores ("pits").

The journalists on tour may well question why a costly tour of this classified facility is being offered just at this time, just when Congress is in the midst of authorizing and appropriating funds for NNSA's programs, including its flagship pit production program.

Recent policy reviews touching upon some of the issues can be found in "Toward a viable plutonium pit production plan: part 1," May 18, 2023 and "Toward a viable plutonium pit production plan: part 2," Jun 9, 2023.

LANL's pit program is deeply troubled.

First of all, LANL's pit production schedule has slipped dramatically.

According to NNSA's most current budget request released in March of this year, the installation of pit production equipment in PF-4 needed to reliably produce 30 high-quality ("War Reserve") pits per year (ppy) will take until at least the end of fiscal year (FY) 2031 to complete, and "could" require an additional 2-4 years, i.e. until 2033-2035 (p. 211). NNSA says it will not be able to know the schedule for starting reliable pit production at LANL until June, 2025. [1]

Until 2021 NNSA said it would be able to produce 30 ppy reliably at LANL by 2026, as is required by law.

In August of that year NNSA was maintaining to Congress that producing 30 ppy by 2026 at LANL was "still achievable." A month later, LANL issued a plan identifying over a year's delay in acquisition of the required 30 ppy capability (see pp. A-3 and following; more at LASG Bulletin 312, "LANL's pit production to be delayed with cost increases...," 10/6/22 and "LANL's pit production a year behind schedule," Santa Fe New Mexican, 10/4/22).

In late 2022 NNSA assured the Government Accountability Office (GAO) that LANL would reach 30 ppy by FY2027, one year behind schedule ("Nuclear Weapons: NNSA Does Not Have a Comprehensive Schedule or Cost Estimate for Pit Production Capability," GAO-23-104661, released Jan 12, 2023, p. 44).

In January of this year, just one week after GAO made its year-long analysis publicly available, DOE announced an additional three years of delay ("Installation of "Base" Capability to Produce 30 Plutonium Warhead Cores ("Pits") at Los Alamos To Be Delayed 4 Years, to 2030, press release, Feb 3, 2023; Approval of Critical Decision-2/3 for Los Alamos Plutonium Pit Production Project 30 Base Equipment Installation Subproject and Approval of Project Execution Plan, DOE memo, Jan 19, 2023).

Then two months later, in mid-March, what was by that time four years of delay became anywhere from 5 to 9 years, as stated via the fine print in NNSA's budget request ("Schedule for Nuclear Warhead Core ("Pit") Production Slipping, Costs Increasing: NNSA's Strategy is Failing," Mar 22, 2023).

LANL expected pit production schedule has slipped anywhere from 5 to 9 years over the past 2 years.

Second, LANL's costs have exploded.

In 1996, LANL was assigned an "interim" pit production mission, partly on the basis of faulty assumptions made in the Analysis of Stockpile Management Alternatives (DOE, July 1996). There, DOE said that acquiring a production capacity of 50 ppy, with a single shift working 5 days per week at LANL, would require a $310 million (M) capital investment, followed by $30 M/year operating costs. Full production could begin in 2002 (p. 8-7), i.e. in six years. An additional $44 M in capital investment would provide a capacity of 100 ppy, again working with a single shift for 5 days per week (p. 8-19). 100 ppy was thought to be the maximum LANL capacity (p. 8-2). (Multiply those dollars by 1.94 to arrive at today's value using a CPI inflator.)

In 2017, NNSA said LANL could reach a 30 ppy "plutonium sustainment" production level (not the same as reliably producing 30 ppy in 9 out of 10 years but assumed to be the same by many in Congress) at a total cost of $3 billion (B) (a $2 B capital investment plus $1 B in operating expenses from FY2018 to FY2026) (NNSA, slide 2). This was to be single-shift production.

As of March of this year, starting up 30 ppy production at LANL can now be reliably expected to cost a further $16 to $19 B over and above the $6.8 B spent so far, or $23-$26 B in all, just through full production startup in the now-expected 2033-2035 period.

In sum, LANL's pit production startup costs have increased approximately 8-fold over the past 5 years -- or if you like, 40-fold (in constant dollars) over the past 27  years (for 40% fewer pits).

We note that PF-4 was opened for operation as a research and development facility for plutonium in 1978. At that time, PF-4's 59,600 sq. ft. of usable laboratory space cost a modest $75 M, or $146 M in today's dollars [2]. Comparison of historic PF-4 costs with 2011 estimated costs for a modern nuclear facility to be built just a few yards away reveal a 30-fold difference. The causes and implications of this cost explosion are not further explored here.

Third, by now it is clear that PF-4's safety problems have not gone away ("NNSA cites Los Alamos National Laboratory for multiple "serious" plutonium safety violations in 2021, May 31, 2023; Preliminary Notice of Violation - TRIAD National Security, LLC, May 18, 2023). A full review of LANL's safety problems -- some fixable; some not; some old; some new and growing -- is beyond the scope of this press release.

Study Group director Greg Mello:

"Yes, NNSA has lots of reasons to stage a 'dog and pony show' at PF-4 right now. We wish NNSA would use the occasion to announce a new policy of pit production demonstration and training only. That will probably have to be imposed by Congress or the Pentagon -- or else by some combination of accidents and fiascos, with who knows what safety consequences.

"The LANL pit mission as currently defined is failing. The sooner NNSA realizes this, the better -- for all parties."

Notes:

1. The dates referenced here are those for completion of construction of the largest pit production capital project at LANL, the "Los Alamos Plutonium Pit Production Project" (LAP4, 21-D-512). From p. 211 in this year's budget request:

NNSA continues to assess the impacts on the TPC [Total Project Cost] and the CD-4 [completion of construction, beneficial occupancy] date due to market conditions (e.g., tight labor market, supply chain delays, and inflation) and internal challenges (e.g., integration with aging infrastructure, site utility limitations, synchronization of multiple site projects, and interfacing work fronts). Construction projects across the nation are experiencing continuing impacts and the Nuclear Security Enterprise is especially susceptible to market conditions due to the skills and clearances required of our designers and craft personnel and the small, domestic, specialty suppliers often required. Based on these factors, the impacts being experienced on similar NNSA work, and changes post-CD-1 [conceptual design] approval which moved scope into the 30R [30 pits per year, reliable] subproject, the potential impact on the project cost may be an increase of 30% to 40% and could extend the schedule by 2 to 4 years. The project will be able to further characterize impacts associated with current conditions and scope changes as the 30R subproject achieves the planned CD-2/3 [initiation of detailed design, concurrent with start of construction] approval in FY 2024.

2. Email communication from the retired PF-4 federal project manager, Study Group files.

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